BD's predictions for the mayor's race...

BD woke up early this morning to find dozens of emails about Mayor Tom Leppert's decision to not run for re-election this May. Tell us, oh wise oracle, what are your predictions??? they asked.

While BD never claimed to be a great prognosticator of political moves (it's kinda hard to read an Oujia board with paws), here are his predictions for local Dallas politics. Don't say I did not warn you.

Jim Moore has been running for months. If you have not heard about him, don't worry, you are not alone. From everything we have heard, he's a nice guy.

Ron Natinsky will jump in the race, seeking the Dallas Citizens Council endorsement as fast as he can. He's got a decent record, he votes with business, and he has the infrastructure in place. And he's got D Magazine's endorsement too.

Dwaine Carraway has embarrassed himself too much recently to be a serious contender. While his friends Arthur and Archie won't be available to manage his campaign's walking money, his CPC appointee Michael Davis is reported to have just purchased a new pair of sneakers and a money pouch.

Angela Hunt is not going to run for Mayor in 2012. I think. She can serve one more term on the Council, which is an easier race for her to win than taking on Natinsky. She's also offended whole voter blocs with her position on higher property taxes and open bidding on airport concessions. Her best option is to stay on Council, get an appointment to the City Plan Commission from her successor for two years, then run for Mayor in 2016. And by that time, the bridge to nowhere and convention hotel will be open for business, and Lowest Greenville will be just an entry in Wikipedia.

Hold onto your hats, folks, it's gonna be a fun ride.

Correction: BD originally posted the statement that a current council member would be required to resign his/her seat if they announce their candidacy for the Mayor's seat. BD has since learned this is not correct... sorta.

Our reference was Laura Miller resigning her District 3 seat (second term) in order to run for Mayor after Ron Kirk resigned to run for US Senate (2001). She was required to resign because (in non-legal terms) her term as a Council Member would have overlapped her term as Mayor. In order to avoid unending special elections, she was required to resign and a special election was called for the District 3 seat (eventually won by Ed Oakley).

None of the potential candidates for Mayor in 2011 will have overlappng terms with their council seat since they can only stand in one election. And no special elections are required since all seats are open. It's either win the Mayor's race or go home.

Dallas City Charter, Chapter 3, Section 17. PROHIBITING HOLDING OR RUNNING FOR OTHER OFFICE.

(b) A member of the city council shall forfeit his or her place on the council if he or she becomes a candidate for nomination or election to any public office other than a place on the city council or if he or she becomes a candidate for election to any different place on the city council that requires taking office prior to the end of his or her elective term.

By Avi S. Adelman under Elections , Dallas City Hall